The chance that there will soon be spot ETFs for XRP, Cardano (ADA) and even Dogecoin (Doge) has increased considerably. According to Bloomberg analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart, the chance is now 90% that these ETFs will be approved by the American SEC. That is big news for the altcoin market and for investors who are looking for more regulated ways to get into crypto.
Why this increase in chance is important
Until recently, Balchunas and Seyffart estimate the chance of approval for XRP, Doge- and ADA-ETFs even lower. Now they indicate that their estimate has been adjusted on the basis of “positive interactions” with the American regulator. The momentum for crypto-etfs therefore seems stronger than ever.
A Spot-ETF makes it possible to invest in the course of a crypto coin, without having to keep that coin yourself. For many traditional American investors, that lowers the threshold to invest in crypto.
In the words of Seyffart: “We raise our expectations for the majority of the spot crypto ETF applications to 90% or higher.”
Polymarket and Vaneck: Extra signals of optimism
Expectations have also risen elsewhere. On Polymarket Users estimate the chance of approval of an XRP ETF before December 31, 2025 at 93%.
In the meantime, asset manager Vaneck has already added his Solana ETF (VSOL) to the DTCC platform, the American system for clearing and settlement. That does not yet mean official approval, but it does show that parties are preparing for a possible green light from the SEC.
When do we know more?
According to Seyffart, the first approvals could fall in July, but the fourth quarter seems more realistic. He mentions October 18 as an important date to keep an eye on. The expectation is that most decisions will be made.
What does this mean for you?
For crypto investors, this ETF approval can not only mean more legitimacy for these altcoins, but also a substantial increase in institutional interest and possibly more liquidity in the market. Certainly for XRP and Ada, who have been in the shadow of Bitcoin and Ethereum for a long time, this can clear the way for a new phase of adoption and price increase.
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