Bitcoin course under pressure, but bullish signs stack up

The Bitcoin Koers is again experiencing a period of correction and consolidation, while investors worldwide are braced for possible macro-economic twists. Despite a decrease in the direction of $ 103,300, various technical and on-chain indicators point to a possible new increase of 25% in the coming weeks-provided that the price remains above crucial support levels.

Drop in the run-up to FOMC decision

The recent correction in the Bitcoin Koers Coinces with increased caution among investors prior to the interest rate decision of the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Traders reduced their positions, which led to a sharp relapse from $ 103,500. Get on top of that geopolitical tensionsin particular the persistent threat between Israel and Iran, who further influences the risk sentiment negatively.

However, according to analysts, the correction cannot be merely attributed to macro-economic factors. Market data from Bitcoin Vector-a market monitor supported by Swissblock-points to a seasonal weakness and decreasing network activity, which indicates a relapse in the demand for spot bitcoin.

Liquidations and profits put pressure

In the last 24 hours, more than $ 434 million has been liquidated by Bitcoin-Futures, which emphasizes that the current movement is mainly driven by leverage. At the same time, so-called “Mid-Term Holders”-investors who last for six to twelve months-took a large-scale profit. According to Glassnode data, no less than $ 904 million in realized profit was made in one day, accounting for 83% of the total market profits. This puts the profit -running behavior of long -term investors towards more reactive market participants.

Despite this pressure, the behavior of long -term investors remains remarkably stable. They hold their positions firmly, which is historically a positive signal. Supported by a healthy MVRV Z-score and positive Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) Momentum, the market seems to take a selective profit rather than in panic.

Important level of support at Bitcoin price of $ 104,400

According to market analyst, Capital stretches the level of $ 104,400 plays a crucial role in the further price trend. Bitcoin has now tested this zone for six consecutive weeks as support after an earlier outbreak from a long-term “re-accumulation zone.” As long as the course Stay above this level, the chance of a continuation of the bull market is considerable.

However, a breakthrough below this level could drastically change the technical image. “It’s hard to speak of lower prices as long as $ 104,400 is not broken,” said the analyst. According to him, a sustainable support at this level would open the door to the next resistance area around $ 108,890 and even a new price discovery above the record of $ 111,814.

Technical signals for a possible recovery

Multiple indicators support the hypothesis that Bitcoin is approaching a soil in the short term. Between $ 102,000 and $ 104,000, for example, there is a historical liquidity zone, where a lot of purchase and sales activity took place earlier. The Bollinger bands – a commonly used volatility indicator – also point to an approaching outbreak. The tires narrow and the middle line around $ 106,000 acts as dynamic resistance.

A successful recapture of the $ 106,748 level could free the road for an increase in $ 112,000. In the event of a breakthrough below $ 100,000, however, the $ 98,000 level comes into the picture as the next important support. Analyst Alphractal points out that as long as Bitcoin above the Realized Price level of short-term holders-currently around $ 98,300-the market sentiment remains mostly positive.

Short-Term Holders Realized Price is at $98,300 — the last level keeping investors in profit.

As long as Bitcoin stays above the STH Realized Price, we can still consider the market to be bullish.

👉 In other words, BTC remains comfortable, showing low volatility with the… pic.twitter.com/fsbqfSgWQU

— Alphractal (@Alphractal) June 17, 2025

Consolidation for a large movement?

According to several analysts, including Daan Crypto Trades, the market is currently in a “tension” where a major movement appears inevitable in June. Consolidation close to the all-time high of $ 111,814 is seen as a harbinger of increased volatility. According to Daan, the monthly price fluctuations are “extremely likely” to break out soon.

In addition, on-chain data is becoming increasingly favorable. Axel Adler Jr. Recently reported a permanent decrease in the CDD momentum below zero, which indicates a decreasing sales pressure of long-term investors. This in combination with a decrease in the number of BTC on Exchanges indicates a possible “supply shock” as soon as the demand attracts again.

If we look at the entire Long-Term Holder cohort, their spending is currently close to minimum levels. Essentially, the current minimum in LTH spending coincides with the classic accumulation phase. In three out of four previous similar cases, such LTH behavior led to Bitcoin… pic.twitter.com/UkMeoK2AjC

— Axel 💎🙌 Adler Jr (@AxelAdlerJr) June 17, 2025

What is Bitcoin waiting for?

In summary, the Bitcoin course seems to be at a crossroads. On the one hand, there are profits and macro-economic uncertainty, on the other hand, technical and on-chain indicators are stacking that points to an upward scenario. If the rate, on a weekly basis, manages to stay above the critical level of $ 104,400, new all-time highs and even a rate of $ 130,000 would not be unthinkable towards the end of the quarter. In the coming weeks, promise to become crucial for the direction that the market chooses.