Real Vision Experts Vision

Rising liquidity, boarding states and a neutral market: this is the moment, say the experts of Real Vision.

In a recent episode of The JourneymanRaoul Pal, co -founder of Real Vision and Macro-investor, together with Jamie Coutts, head of crypto analyst at Real Vision, an in-depth analysis of the current state of affairs in the cryptomarkt. The conversation, which extended from macro-economic indicators to on-chain data, revealed a number of striking insights about where we are in the current cycle-and what is possible for us.

Liquidity is king

The core of Jamie’s investment philosophy is simple: Crypto Coersen – and actually the prices of all assets – are primarily powered by liquidity. When global liquidity rises, it is usually a harbinger of price increases, especially for Bitcoin. His models show that Bitcoin behaves extremely sensitively during periods of liquidity growth, with price increases that can be up to 20 to 30 times the increase in liquidity.

What makes this moment so crucial is that, according to Coutts, worldwide liquidity recently freed itself from a long period of shrinkage. The breakout arrived at the beginning of April, and since then the Bitcoin Koers Already increased by around 40%. “We are in a super bullish liquidity regime,” said Coutts. This macro-economic context is further strengthened by the fact that central banks-challenged by high debts and interest obligations-seem to open the money taps again.

A new era of institutional adoption

What makes this cycle different from the previous one is the fast institutional and geopolitical adoption of blockchain technology, according to Raoul Pal. During a recent trip to the Middle East, he spoke with various sovereign investment funds. Their mandate? Full of bets on blockchain and AI. Bitcoin is not only considered as a reserve asset, but entire government infrastructures-from driving licenses to ownership registrations-are designed on blockchainrails.

For PAL this is not a ‘supercycle’ in the traditional sense, but rather a natural outcome of scale: to grow a market from 3 to 100 trillion dollars, larger players are indispensable. And they are now coming on board.

Risk models for crypto: from data to insight

Jamie Coutts presented a new framework consisting of three risk scores: the Global Liquidity Risk Score, the Derivatives Risk Score and the Network Profitability Risk Score. These offer investors insight into the health of the market on three levels: (1) How prices relate to liquidity, (2) how much risk there is in liver and derivatives, and (3) or investors are on profit and possibly wanting to sell.

Remarkably, all three scores are currently on “neutral”, which indicates a market with room for growth. There is little overheating, the leverage is low, and on-chain profit-freeing is limited. According to Pal and Coutts, this offers the ideal breeding ground for the next phase of price increases.

Altseason: a balanced advance

An important point of discussion was the so -called “altseason” – the moment when Altcoins Bitcoin starts to exceed. Although the advance has not yet been widely worn, both the Advance Decline Line and the Altseason indicator point to a starting trend. The market now selects more specifically; Not all Altcoins lifts automatically on bitcoinrallies such as in 2017 or 2021.

Instead, there seems to be more “maturity” in how capital is divided: tokens with strong network activity, adoption and fundamental growth have an advantage. Projects such as Hyperliquid, Solanaand even Tron are mentioned as promising in this light. The revival of on-chain activity on platforms such as EthereumSolana in Sui Indicates that the ecosystem is growing fundamentally.

A longer cycle than expected?

Both Pal and Coutts expect that this cycle may last longer than many think. Due to the delayed interest rates and the continuing economic delay, the scenario could extend to even in 2026. This is comparable to the 2017 cycle, in which the rally started more slowly, but eventually ended spectacularly.

According to PAL, the broader adoption of crypto – both as an investment vehicle and technological infrastructure – will act as structural support by governments and companies. These cycles are no longer bubble patterns, but rather adopt the course of adult growth markets.

No Fomo, but foresight

Both gentlemen agree: this is not a moment for blind fomo or leverage. Their message is clear: stay rational, use data, and monitor your risk. The unique combination of rising liquidity, low liverage, and increasing network growth forms a solid basis for further price increases – but the pitfalls of too much enthusiasm and poor timing remain.

Conclusion: the market is calm before the storm

If one message comes from the conversation between Raoul Pal and Jamie Coutts, it is this: the crypto market is at the start of a new upward phase, possibly stronger and more sustainable than the previous ones. With data-driven insights and a sharp eye for macrotrends, investors can better position themselves in this boisterous but promising market.

The chance of “unlocking the future”, as it calls it, lies not only in the possession of assets, but especially in understanding the underlying forces that drive the market. And those forces – from liquidity to geopolitics – are now on the move.

View the entire conversation between Raoul Pal and Jamie Coutts in the video below:

Banana Zone data secrets revealed by @Jamie1Coutts—Enjoy! pic.twitter.com/AJ52lEZnAn

— Raoul Pal (@RaoulGMI) June 19, 2025